The Monetary Occasions’s workforce of crystal ball gazers had their greatest 12 months for some time in 2023, with solely three fallacious solutions — although we bought these fairly fallacious. The S&P 500 didn’t fall by greater than 10 per cent, however climbed over 20 per cent (although pushed principally by simply seven tech shares). Europe didn’t expertise blackouts, although we mentioned this might occur solely in a really chilly winter (it wasn’t). And there wasn’t a string of defaults in Africa, although Ethiopia did default this week.
It says a lot concerning the world that, for a 3rd 12 months working, we characteristic questions on conflict or army motion this 12 months — between Israel and Hamas, Russia and Ukraine and, maybe, between China and Taiwan. The massive calls appear ever more durable to make. However on the query extra FT workers instructed than another — will Donald Trump be president? — Edward Luce agreed to enterprise his greatest guess. Learn on to seek out out!
A report 17 readers tied on 19 right solutions in our competitors. Congratulations to Richard Barnes of London, general winner after the tiebreaker. We invite readers once more to submit solutions to this 12 months’s 20 questions and tiebreaker, giving their actual identify and e mail. Pleased New Yr! Neil Buckley
FT readers: submit your predictions for 2024
Will Donald Trump change into US president once more?
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No. However — assuming the latest authorized hurdles thrown up towards Trump standing in Colorado and Maine are overcome — his marketing campaign towards Joe Biden would be the nastiest presidential election in US historical past.
It is going to be very shut run. Trump will probably be criminally convicted in a minimum of one in all his 4 trials, most likely two, earlier than the election, and can current it as political persecution by the “Biden crime household”. Although visibly ageing, Biden will squeak by, extra as a result of a slender majority will probably be rejecting Trump than endorsing a Biden second time period. Edward Luce
Will 2024 surpass 2023 as the most popular 12 months on report?
Sure. The 12 months 2023 was marked by so many scorching warmth extremes that it’ll virtually definitely show to be the most popular in 174 years of local weather data, as soon as the ultimate numbers are in.
However many scientists anticipate 2024 to be even hotter, as a result of the 2023 warmth was bolstered by the emergence of a naturally occurring El Niño local weather sample. This usually has the largest impact on world temperatures after it peaks — which can not occur till January 2024. Pilita Clark
Will the Israel-Hamas conflict set off a full-blown regional battle?
No. The conflict has sparked violence throughout the area involving Iranian-backed militant teams. The most important concern is that border clashes between Hizbollah, the highly effective Lebanese motion, and Israeli forces spiral right into a full-blown battle between the 2.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s authorities has been clear it will possibly not stay with Hizbollah fighters camped on the Lebanon-Israel border, however the hope is that diplomatic strain incorporates the state of affairs.
Neither Washington nor Tehran need a broader regional battle, even when preventing between Hizbollah and Israel intensifies, however the state of affairs is alarmingly unstable. Andrew England
Will the US obtain a tender touchdown?
Sure, within the quick time period. Inflation has drifted down in a way that has shocked even the Federal Reserve this 12 months, and development has remained stronger than most economists anticipated.
Since client spending stays sturdy and wage development (pretty) effectively contained, a tender touchdown may proceed for a number of months. However don’t guess on it lasting all through 2024. There will probably be much less fiscal assist, as Covid-era handouts to households have been consumed. Larger rates of interest are sparking bankruptcies, US debt worries are rising and geopolitical stresses are fracturing world commerce. That might elevate inflation and sluggish development. So inside a 12 months, the touchdown will most likely change into extra painful. Gillian Tett
Will Keir Starmer change into UK prime minister?
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Sure, although it’s doable the UK election doesn’t occur till January 2025. Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives look divided and exhausted.
The variety of seats the Labour opposition should win means it may land wherever between a minority authorities and the landslide to which opinion polls presently level. However this can be very arduous to see how the prime minister can recuperate sufficient assist to carry on to energy. Robert Shrimsley
Will China’s financial development crash to three per cent or much less?
No. The standard of Chinese language development has definitely deteriorated markedly lately. The property market, which contributes virtually a 3rd of gross home product, is slowly imploding. Many native governments are drowning in debt. The Chinese language client is hesitant.
However GDP development in 2024 remains to be set to comfortably exceed 4 per cent — assisted by a medley of debt bailout packages, fiscal stimulus initiatives and different types of official assist. Advances in know-how will stay sturdy. James Kynge
Will a change of president in Taiwan spark a Chinese language assault?
No. Many individuals inside and outdoors Taiwan fear extra about conflict lately, due to China’s increasing army manoeuvres. The frontrunner in January’s presidential election, the ruling Democratic Progressive occasion’s Lai Ching-te, additionally has a really completely different background to the incumbent Tsai Ing-wen.
However Lai has been clear he would observe Tsai’s cautious China coverage stance — leaving Beijing with no pretext for an assault. The Chinese language management beneath President Xi Jinping nonetheless appears to imagine, too, that it has an opportunity to coerce Taiwan into unification with out preventing — by stepping up army intimidation, political infiltration, financial lures and worldwide isolation. Kathrin Hille
Will the US and the EU hold funding Ukraine?
Sure. As Ukraine’s counteroffensive towards Russia’s invasion stalled in late 2023, army and monetary assist for Kyiv grew to become a contentious subject on each side of the Atlantic. The Biden administration is decided to maintain provides flowing: a take care of Republicans in Congress may contain concessions on US border safety in return for prolonged help for Ukraine.
A much bigger problem will come up if Donald Trump returns to the presidency. EU leaders, in the meantime, ought to discover methods early in 2024 of circumventing Hungary’s veto on a €50bn monetary help bundle. However Ukraine remains to be prone to battle to make a army breakthrough, so will come beneath mounting strain to barter with Moscow. Tony Barber
Will Ursula von der Leyen safe a second time period as European Fee president?
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Sure, with some effort. Ursula von der Leyen has acquitted herself effectively in a time period marked by crises, proving the worth of frequent EU motion in borrowing, well being, defence spending and vitality coverage. Her flagship European Inexperienced Deal has largely stayed on observe.
However her behavior of springing insurance policies on capitals and shut alignment with Washington have irritated some leaders. Her 2019 coalition is in danger from good points by the populist proper in European parliament elections. However her centre-right EPP occasion is in pole place to retain the presidency, even when which means nearer collaboration with Eurosceptic events. And, for now, nobody looks like a stronger EPP candidate. Martin Sandbu
Will the Financial institution of Japan elevate charges above zero?
No. 2024 would be the 12 months the Japanese central financial institution lastly ditches yield curve management and damaging rates of interest. Opposite to market expectations of a number of additional will increase, nevertheless, charges will finish the 12 months no larger than zero.
With mediocre wage development, a stronger yen in prospect as US charges peak and causes to desire a steeper yield curve, the BoJ is unlikely to set a optimistic charge — though as with every central financial institution forecast, a lot will depend on the incoming knowledge. Robin Harding
Will the ANC vote fall under 50 per cent in South Africa’s election?
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Sure, simply. After 30 years in energy, the African Nationwide Congress will miss out on an absolute majority for the primary time since Nelson Mandela grew to become president in 1994.
The occasion’s picture has been eroded by years of corruption, incompetence and appalling service supply, epitomised by rolling energy cuts. In actual per capita phrases, the economic system has stagnated for 15 years. In 2019, beneath President Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC vote dipped to 57.5 per cent. This 12 months, it’ll fall once more. If it goes under 50 per cent, as appears distinctly believable, it’ll want coalition companions. David Pilling
Will Argentina dollarise its economic system?
No. Some would argue long-suffering Argentines have already dumped the peso: they save in bucks and purchase and promote property unofficially in {dollars}.
However regardless of his marketing campaign pledges to dollarise the economic system, Argentina’s radical new libertarian president Javier Milei plumped as a substitute for devaluation in his first financial measures.
Although his economic system minister Luis Caputo insisted that adopting the US foreign money stays a long-term intention, it’s unlikely to occur in 2024: the IMF is unenthusiastic and most economists imagine the lack of financial sovereignty would outweigh the advantages. Michael Stott
Will renewables overtake coal in world electrical energy era?
No. Whereas renewable energy’s share of era is anticipated to outstrip coal inside the subsequent few years, it’s unlikely to occur in 2024, due to China.
Chinese language demand for coal has continued to rise quickly in 2023 and whereas renewables are rising quick too — anticipated to account for about 90 per cent of all new era capability globally — this gained’t fairly be sufficient to surpass coal era subsequent 12 months, whilst western coal use declines.
However the tipping level shouldn’t be distant. Extra vital for the local weather is when China’s urge for food for coal lastly goes into reverse. David Sheppard
Will traders go closely again into bonds?
Sure. “Bonds are again” was the largest guess in markets in 2023, nevertheless it was a flop. Scorching inflation and relentless rate of interest rises meant that by October, the Bloomberg Barclays Combination bond index was down 4 per cent, rekindling reminiscences of a brutal 2022 and irritating massive traders’ efforts to name a backside.
Now, traders imagine a slowdown of some type is coming to the US economic system because the lagged results of rate of interest rises lastly kick in. With inflation sinking and charge cuts on the horizon, bonds appear a safer guess. Katie Martin
Will X go bankrupt?
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Sure. Elon Musk steadily makes use of warnings of chapter to inspire; he did it at Tesla and SpaceX. However this time, with X’s promoting tanking and makes an attempt to create new sources of income falling flat, there’s a very good likelihood it’ll occur.
After latest emotional outbursts towards X’s advertisers, he could also be reckless sufficient to suppose he can put it by chapter and nonetheless come out on prime. Musk preventing for management of X in chapter could be a gripping sequel to the drama-filled Twitter acquisition. Richard Waters
Will Sam Altman be sacked once more from OpenAI?
No. Sam Altman initially structured his firm in order that its board managed a non-profit created to profit humanity. He mentioned he held no fairness in OpenAI, and the board may fireplace him at any time.
However when Altman’s co-founder and three unbiased board members did simply that in November, they ended up reinstating him 4 days later.
Now, all however one of many authentic board have been ousted; Microsoft — OpenAI’s key companion and largest monetary backer — could have a job as a non-voting observer on the brand new board and the corporate’s governance will probably be overhauled so he can’t be put in such a place once more. Madhumita Murgia
Will capital markets reopen for IPOs?
Sure. Corporations can solely delay fundraising for therefore lengthy, and after a lean spell Wall Road bankers must discover a approach for extra exercise to happen.
US and European IPO markets have been moribund for 2 years, however with rates of interest peaking and inventory markets again close to report highs, the setting for dealmaking appears brighter.
Nonetheless, don’t anticipate a return to the fundraising frenzy of 2020 and 2021. Charges could be falling, however they aren’t going again to zero and traders will probably be paying extra consideration to profitability and stability sheet energy. Nicholas Megaw
Will Novo Nordisk finish the 12 months as Europe’s most beneficial firm?
Sure. In 2023, weight problems therapy Wegovy grew to become one of the profitable drug launches of all time and Denmark’s Novo overtook luxurious items group LVMH in worth.
However 2024 appears difficult for these promoting extremely priced purses to China — whereas Novo’s primary subject in promoting extremely priced weight problems remedy is how rapidly it will possibly produce it. After profitable over sufferers and docs to utilizing its diabetes drug for weight problems, Novo is now increasing entry and protection in a market the place maybe 1mn persons are being handled out of a affected person inhabitants of 100mn within the US and 700mn globally. Helen Thomas
Will feminine pop stars out-earn the lads in live performance excursions?
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No, not general. Taylor Swift’s Eras tour this 12 months grew to become the primary to exceed $1bn in revenues — surpassing Elton John’s earlier all-time report of $939mn — and continues subsequent 12 months. Beyoncé’s Renaissance tour was this 12 months’s quantity two, incomes $580mn.
However the gender imbalance nonetheless skews in direction of males. Just one different girl, Pink, was in 2023’s prime 10 touring acts. Swift and Beyoncé are in a league aside, incomes appreciably extra per present than different stadium acts. Pink and Madonna might characteristic in 2024’s field workplace charts, however male acts reminiscent of Coldplay, Bruce Springsteen and the Rolling Stones will proceed to dominate. Ludovic Hunter-Tilney
Will Britain return the Parthenon marbles to Greece?
Sure — though it’ll virtually definitely be by way of a mortgage settlement, not a full return which might require a change in UK legislation. Political tempers flared this 12 months when Rishi Sunak abruptly cancelled a gathering in London with Greek premier Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
However British Museum chair George Osborne has strongly advocated a deal to permit the marbles to be displayed in Athens, with different Greek treasures coming to London in return. The Labour occasion’s Keir Starmer has hinted he wouldn’t block an accord acceptable to the museum and to Athens. Jan Dalley
Tiebreaker: What number of medals will the host France win on the Paris Olympics?