Nearly 23,000 individuals – the overwhelming majority Palestinian – have been killed because the unprecedented Hamas assaults in southern Israel on October 7, which launched the Israeli assault on Gaza.
As the top of 2023 approaches, the Israeli offensive is exhibiting no indicators of any let-up and the dying toll is for certain to rise on either side as combating continues.
Political makes an attempt at peace have failed.
Israel has said from the outset that its goal is to eradicate Hamas’s navy and governing capabilities. To this finish, it has continued the aerial bombardment and floor invasion of the Gaza Strip nearly with out pause, since October 7.
Whereas Israel admits it has failed on this mission to date, it claims it’s only a query of time earlier than it achieves this objective. However does the scenario on the bottom assist that declare?
The reply is a cautious no.
An in depth and neutral evaluation of varied facets of its efficiency results in the conclusion that to date, Hamas has skilled extra successes than failures – for the next causes.
Hamas continues to exist
The organisation remains to be very a lot alive and kicking. Politically, it’s nonetheless recognised – de facto if not de jure – as the one entity exercising management over what stays of the closely broken civilian constructions within the Gaza Strip.
It’s occasion to oblique negotiations which have already managed to provide a one-week-long pause within the assault on Gaza and a restricted change of Israeli and Palestinian captives and hostages. So long as it holds on to its remaining hostages, Hamas will proceed to be an inevitable “different aspect” with out which no launch of these captives might be attainable.
Israel has repeatedly said that there’s “no place” for Hamas within the post-war civilian constructions of Gaza however has by no means produced any semblance of a concrete, various plan.
Numerous imprecise, unfocused strategies that the way forward for Gaza could be higher with out Hamas have been floated however no person has produced any coherent suggestion of methods to take away Hamas and what to interchange it with.
The US, some Arab states and numerous worldwide organisations have steered {that a} post-war Gaza must be run by Fatah or a pan-Arab power, however have offered no tangible plans for methods to obtain that. For now, this stays wishful considering. For the predictable future, subsequently, Hamas is right here to remain.
Hamas stays an efficient navy power The navy wing of Hamas, the Qassam Brigades, has by no means publicly disclosed details about its construction, organisation or numbers.
Some consultants, utilizing open sources and leaked intelligence from Israeli, US, Arab and Russian sources, estimate the Qassam Brigades’ energy at between 30,000 and 45,000 fighters.
Even essentially the most cautious of analysts imagine that earlier than the battle, the power may rely not less than 18,000 well-trained, disciplined and ideologically extremely motivated first-line troopers in its ranks, with all the things above that quantity being the second echelon.
Numerous Israeli claims of getting killed as many as 10,000 Hamas fighters are nearly definitely exaggerated.
The Qassam Brigades have been taking heavy losses however most of its battalions stay efficient fight items. Institute for the Examine of Conflict, an influential and well-informed US suppose tank estimates that out of 26 to 30 battalions of fighters, which had been believed to exist on October 7 – every having 400 to 1,000 males, solely three have been rendered inoperable – or, in civilian parlance, destroyed.
Of the rest, 4 or 5 have been “degraded”, which means that their energy is lowered however they proceed to battle, both alone or by becoming a member of different items.
In a single facet, the Hamas navy wing has proved exceptionally efficient: all items whose commanders have been killed have nonetheless continued combating underneath their deputies.
Counting on its wonderful subject intelligence, Israel has managed to kill not less than 5 battalion commanders in focused air raids, with not less than six extra dying in battle, together with the commander of the Northern Brigade. But none of these items was rendered “headless” and collapsed, confirming Hamas’s clear skill to plan and practice competent deputies.
Israel has been destroying or blocking tunnel entrances wherever it could discover them however there are clear indicators that Hamas nonetheless maintains sufficient underground services to maneuver forces between entrance traces and sometimes efficiently flank and shock the enemy.
Hamas has assist from different armed factions
Reviews from Gaza typically make it seem that the Hamas armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, is doing all of the combating. The truth is, there are not any fewer than 12 totally different armed teams, affiliated with totally different political and ideological blocs. The second-best recognized is Islamic Jihad, however others embody the Well-liked Resistance Committee and two Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine of just about the identical title – one calling itself “Well-liked” whereas the opposite is “Democratic”.
In all probability essentially the most unlikely to be related to Hamas is the Al-Aqsa Martyr Brigades, the armed wing of its rival, Fatah. Political variations apart, nonetheless, it fights in coordination with and largely underneath the final command of the Qassam Brigades.
Placing all these teams underneath the Hamas umbrella is a realistic answer born out of necessity, nevertheless it appears to work to the satisfaction of all concerned, with no seen tensions or cracks to date.
There have been no dependable claims of any of this plethora of smaller items caving in underneath stress from Israeli armed forces, disbanding, deserting or collaborating with the enemy. Moreover, it can’t be dominated out that a few of them might merge, not less than quickly, into the Qassam Brigades.
The continued co-existence of those armed factions whereas they face the identical menace is doubtless a hit for Hamas.
Hamas has gained recognition within the West Financial institution
Opposite to the predominant Israeli and Western picture of Hamas as unacceptable terrorists and murderers of harmless civilians – a view notably bolstered after studies of indiscriminate slaughter on October 7 – many Palestinians see it in a distinct gentle.
Those that see themselves as victims of Israeli oppression, unequal therapy, lawlessness and discrimination typically idolise Hamas as a fearless defender of Palestinians, and sometimes as the one group doing so. Many younger individuals born because the Nineties Oslo Accords, which had been meant to provide a two-state answer, admit to being pissed off by the Palestinian authorities’ lack of ability to safe what was agreed, promised and signed in these accords.
This sense of frustration has develop into notably sturdy within the West Financial institution, run by Fatah, which is considered by many younger individuals as inefficient, corrupt, incapable and tired of working for the Palestinian trigger.
Rising aggression from unlawful Israeli settlers, who proceed to harass, steal from and inflict violence upon Palestinians within the West Financial institution with impunity, has moreover alienated Palestinians.
Many West Financial institution Palestinians reacted to the battle in Gaza by brazenly flying Hamas flags, typically alongside these of Fatah. Younger Palestinians residing within the walled and dismembered West Financial institution have lengthy been offended about being passive underdogs at all times on the receiving finish of this form of therapy.
Many have now positioned their hopes and expectations with those that rose, fought again and hit Israel exhausting despite the fact that Israel is a lot stronger.
Whereas this view might defy logic and appear surprising to outsiders, there is no such thing as a doubt that it’s real.
Even when Israel had been to realize its objective of “ending” Hamas – a totally unrealistic prospect – many Palestinians would keep in mind Hamas because the one group which refused to sit down passively and simply obtain blow after blow from Israel.
Regardless of the heavy casualties it has taken and the picture it has acquired within the West, Hamas most likely has extra causes to be glad than apprehensive.